A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
